As the 2020 election draws closer and with the first round of Democratic debates in the books, the Democratic field is slowly starting to take shape. Unfortunately for the Democrats who hope to replace Trump in the White House, the first major poll to come out since the first Democratic debate doesn’t leave the Democratic party with much to celebrate.
According to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, there are several trends that spell troubling news for the Democratic party heading into the 2020 election. To start, the poll shows that President Trump’s job approval rating has hit its highest mark since Trump took office, which now sits at 47% across all voters.
“Among registered voters, 47 percent say they approve of Trump while 50 percent disapprove,” the Washington Post reports, “In April, 42 percent of registered voters said they approved while 54 percent said they disapproved.”
The Washington Post credits the strong economy for being the primary factor in Trump’s growing approval rating, with 51% of registered voters approving of Trump’s job handling the nation’s economy.
“Asked how much credit Trump deserves for the state of the economy, 47 percent say a ‘great deal’ or a ‘good amount,’ while 48 percent say he deserves ‘only some’ or ‘hardly any,'” the Washington Post reported, “When asked the same question in a January 2018 survey, a smaller 38 percent of Americans gave him credit for the economy while 56 percent said he deserved little or none. In that 2018 poll, 19 percent said he deserved a great deal of credit for the economy; today that number is 30 percent.”
A high approval rating when it comes to the economy is always the best path that a President has to reelection. When voters head to the ballot box, they tend to vote with their wallet in mind more than anything else. So long as Trump’s approval rating of how he is handling the economy doesn’t decline or continues to improve, Trump has a clear path to reelection in 2020.
Trump’s growing approval rating wasn’t the only bad news for Democrats that the Washington Post poll brought to light. According to the poll, Trump’s chances of winning against prospective Democratic opponents has grown significantly as well. Now, only Joe Biden holds a lead that is within the margin of error in a head-to-head matchup with Donald Trump. The poll found that Biden still has a ten point lead over Trump in a hypothetical election that features the two candidates.
The second closest of all the Democratic candidates, though, is Sen. Kamala Harris – who even after a major surge in the polls following the first Democratic debate still only leads President Trump by two points in a hypothetical matchup. Bernie Sanders, meanwhile, leads Trump by just one point in this poll while all other 2020 Democratic Presidential candidates either tie Trump or fall behind.
Of course, it’s also important to keep in mind just how badly the polls failed to predict the election in 2016. In 2016, Donald Trump surged into the White House on the back of overwhelming support from a silent majority whose votes were not reflected in any of the major polls. The polls in that election were shockingly wrong, showing Hillary Clinton winning by a landslide. Now, the same polls are predicting a very close race in 2020. If these polls are in any way repeating the mistakes of 2016, President Trump could be leading the election by far more than anyone in the mainstream media is imagining.
All of this adds up to very troubling news for 2020 Democrats who are desperate to see Trump removed from office. In spite of the 2020 election being the most important election that the Democratic party has ever held, the 2020 Democratic field is both weak and divided. The fight to win the Democratic primary is already set to be an all-out war, and Democratic candidates are almost guaranteed to take a lot of damage in the process.
Thanks to all of these factors, Trump’s path to reelection is now clearer than it has ever been. If Democrats hope to avoid another four years of President Trump, something must be done to change the tide. Fortunately for those who support the President, all of the momentum is now in Trump’s favor.