When President Trump announced he intends to run for re-election in 2020, it should have come as no surprise to anyone except those who still don’t believe Hillary lost and a few #neverTrump holdovers. He did, after all, file the paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to run in 2020 just hours after he was inaugurated a little over a year ago.
It is unusual for a sitting president to launch a campaign this early in a term with Trump setting a record of making an official announcement 980 days before the next presidential election. That breaks Barack Obama’s record of 582 days and eclipses the third quickest announcement in Bill Clinton’s first term.
Earlier in 2017, the question being asked by many was “can Trump win re-election?” 2016 should have taught everyone to quit asking that. Still, half-way through his first year in office that looked like a legitimate question.
President Trump’s first year in office has been somewhat of a survival of the fittest battle in Washington. With the mainstream media streaming constant negative news and the Democrats obsession with proving Trump colluded with the Russians it’s no wonder that by May 2017 his approval rating was at a historic low for a president’s first year in office.
It isn’t just the Democrats who believed Trump wouldn’t make it during his first term. Steve Bannon, his former White House chief strategist, gave his boss only a 30 percent chance of completing his first term. It should be noted that the operative word there is ‘former’.
Longtime Republican #NeverTrumper Mike Murphy gave Trump until early 2019 and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon continues to say that Donald Trump will be the first one-term president since George H.W. Bush.
But the picture has changed quite a bit over the last six months or so. Priorities USA polling shows the President’s approval rating now at 44 percent. Significant since that is a Democratic Party internal polling metric.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Trump’s approval rating at 50 percent. That’s far better than Barack Obama’s 43 percent approval rating at the end of his first year.
American University historian Allan Lichtman has called the outcome of every presidential election since 1984 (with the exception of 2000). Lichtman said:
“If Trump wins reelection it will be because he quells a revolt in his own party, establishes more of a conservative agenda than just tax cuts, avoids a big foreign policy disaster, and perhaps even achieves a foreign policy success.”
RealClearPolitics senior elections analyst Sean Trende believes the economy, not the Mueller investigations, will determine the likelihood of Trump having a second term. He said:
“The people who really care and are apoplectic or think he’s the greatest guy ever are already voting Democratic or Republican,” he said. “What you’re left with as deciders are these people who don’t follow politics really closely but do know if they got a raise this year or if their cousin got laid off.”
Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight, hardly a Trump enthusiast, agrees. He reminds us that most first-term presidents have a rough time during their first two years in office and their parties generally suffer mild to huge losses in the midterms. At the same time, most incumbent presidents win a second term.
Silver agrees that the state of the economy is key. He says the average voter may not like whoever is president but what matters is how he or she is perceived to have affected their personal life. That average voter is likely to say something like:
You know what? I was worried about Trump when he was first in office and I don’t like the tweeting, but the fact is things have worked out okay for me personally, the economy seems to be in as good shape as it’s been in many years, and so why not?
The greatest thing the President has going for him is the enthusiastic and enduring support of his base. Many may think his tweets will be his undoing but they are exactly why his base remains rock solid.
President Trump understands that what used to be called ‘new media’ has become the only media that guarantees his message gets out without passing through the filters of the press.
The first step in winning reelection may have well been Trump’s choice of Brad Parscale as his 2020 campaign manager. Parscale oversaw digital operations for the Trump campaign in 2016.
~ Freedom News Report